Neutrality Remains Unlikely in the Age of Globalization

- Decisions of the United States Federal Reserve regarding raising interest rates, or lowering them.....or issuing financial statements concerning unemployment, durable goods, real estate activity, or the dollar exchange rate.....etc., of American data still attract and require global economic and financial attention from most countries of the world...because such financial data of the U.S. Federal Reserve..provide incentives on one hand..and impose constraints..and rein in excesses on the other hand..inside the United States of America..and outside it..It is the owner of the strongest economy in the world (with a gross domestic product of 23 trillion dollars in 2021).......so if it raises its interest rates...central banks in most countries of the world rush to raise their lending interest rate, by different percentages.. In this regard, I read an article in The New York Times dated 16-6-2022 about the rise in interest rates around the world, and the effect of the recent 0.75% increase in the United States Federal Reserve’s rate.. in light of rising inflation rates..the effect of rising prices in markets in the United States and the world, ......despite the partial retreat of globalization during the pandemic (COVID-19), when countries closed their borders and became more selfish for the benefit of their peoples....without the solidarity of globalization.. these countries reduced donations, aid and grants to developing...needy countries in the world.....!

- The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday dated (15-6-2022) pushed interest rates higher, which is therefore the third increase this year by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the largest since 1994.., and further increases in the interest rate are expected during the five remaining monthly meetings this year – 2022 – of the U.S. Federal Reserve

- The European Central Bank also indicated that it will raise interest rates in July, for the first time in 11 years, and investors increasingly believe it will move quickly as it attempts to slow the economy.. Similar shifts have been announced by many of the world’s largest companies, and in Russia as well, the central bank raised interest rates above 20 percent shortly after the war in Ukraine, and in the months that followed, Russia made four cuts to reduce levels to what they were before the start of the fighting ..!.. In this context..the United States claims and accuses Russia that its war on Ukraine has led to a global food crisis.

- It is clear that the United States did not attribute to itself any relation to the issue of rising prices and spreading inflation...knowing that it printed trillions of dollars into the American market to cover expenditures and increase liquidity in its markets (quantitative easing) in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020,... and the United States remains the dominant state that imposed the harshest economic sanctions on Russia, with Western countries alongside it ..in addition to inflaming the war between Russia and Ukraine, by leading the process of supplying Ukraine with arms,..and obstructing the negotiation channels between the two countries (Russia and Ukraine)..which could have extinguished the consequences of the war between the two countries..and confined them..instead of prolonging the war..which certainly had an impact on the global economy whether in energy or food in the world in light of Western economic sanctions...!

· The aforementioned article in The New York Times showed increases in interest rates this year, and during the past six months in more than 45 countries in the world, up to the date of preparing that article...!

- For example: in North America: the United States raised interest by: 0.75%, Canada: 0.50%, Russia: 10.50%, Ukraine: 15.00%, the United Kingdom: 0.25%, the Eurozone: will rise in 7-2022 - 0.25%..., South Korea: +0.25, India: +0.50, Saudi Arabia: +0.50, Egypt: +2.00, South Africa: +0.50, Australia: +0.50%...etc.

- Raising interest rates is a powerful tool of capitalist countries, led by the United States, and an instrument to rein in rising prices, according to their economists’ point of view, since with rising rates, borrowing costs become higher, which is reflected accordingly on consumers and their demand for goods and services,..and business expansion and increased investment will decline...! Conversely..there will be tepid growth in the economy, slower employment, and declining incomes of individuals and their families from jobs.....! As a result of the recent U.S. interest rate increase of 0.75%...the cost of borrowing in U.S. dollars has risen for banks, and thus for customers, and this is a negative indicator for economies seeking to stimulate markets by setting low interest rates... since raising the cost of borrowing will lead to a decline in the pace of applying for credit facilities in global markets, and even in domestic markets of countries especially in the dollar currency and currencies pegged to it.

- The newspaper in its cited article dated 16-6-2022 issued a table showing the national income rate of many countries (the source of this information is the International Monetary Fund), in addition to the prevailing interest rate in 2022, in addition to experts’ expectations of projected inflation figures this year.... We mention among them, for example:

· United States : Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 23 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 1.7%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 7.7%....!

· China: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 17.5 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 3.7%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 2.1%..!

· Eurozone: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 14.5 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 0%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 5.3%..!

· Japan: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 4.9 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is –0.10%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 1%..!

· United Kingdom: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 3.2 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 1.25%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 7.4%...

· India: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 3 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 4.9%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 6.1%...

· Canada: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounts to 2 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 1.5%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 5.6%...

· Brazil: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 1.6 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 13.25%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 8.2%...

· Russia: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 1.8 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 1.75%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 21.3%

· South Korea: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 1.8 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is 1.75%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 4%, and it appears in the statistics published by the American newspaper the ranking of the Russian Federation according to the gross domestic product for 2021, where it received number 11 after South Korea...!

· Israel: Its gross domestic product for 2021 amounted to 0.4 trillion dollars...the current interest rate is –0.60%. As for the expected inflation rate in 2022, it was estimated at 3.5%

A look at these data regarding the world’s gross economic output, amounting to $94 trillion in 2021, shows that the United States’ gross domestic product amounted to about 25% of global economic output, and that only 4 countries in 2021 — the United States, China, Japan and Germany — accounted for more than half of the world’s total economic output in that year (2021). The nominal GDP of the United States alone was larger than the combined GDP of 170 countries — according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data. Experts measure gross domestic product as the total market value of final goods and services produced in a country during a specified time frame, usually (a year).. !

Similarly, we note that China follows the United States. China appears as the second-largest gross domestic product after the United States. It is noted that China is, and remains, the world’s largest manufacturing country....! Germany is the largest economy in Europe, and the country exports about 20% of the world’s total exported cars...!